Economic Vulnerability and Analysis of Adaptation Options to Coastal Erosion in San Fernando, La Union

Jaimie Kim Bayani-Arias, Moises A Dorado, Rowena A Dorado
Vol 15 No 2 (2012), pp.




The City of San Fernando in La Union is one of the coastal municipalities in the Philippines that are threatened by coastal erosion. This study estimated the economic vulnerability of the City on coastal erosion until 2100. Adaptation options were identified and evaluated by its economic, social, administrative and political feasibility. About 300 structures, 283,085 m2 of land and 123,033 m2 of beach along San Fernando Bay will be lost to coastal erosion/shoreline retreat by the year 2100. The adaptation options identified were: “business as usual”, planned protection and planned retreat/relocation. Among the adoption strategies, planned protection turned out to be the best option. Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), which served as the basis for the economic feasibility of the options, showed that planned protection consistently yielded the highest estimate with a net present value (NPV) of about PhP 148.63 M under the assumption that beaches were not resilient (Scenario A), and about PhP 126.78 M under the assumption that beaches were resilient (Scenario B), at a discount rate of 6%. This option also fared fairly in terms of social feasibility with 65% of the survey respondents agreeing to it and also deemed legally/ politically feasible with 82% of the local government respondents agreed to support the proposed intervention.


Keywords: Coastal Erosion, Adaptation, Economic Vulnerability, La Union